Drought forecasts using data reported by the CHIRPS tool of the CHANLUD satellite weather station
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Abstract
The study of the characteristics and types of drought observed in recent years are indispensable elements when identifying problems related to climate change. Climatic trends accurately visualize arid and semi-arid zones, which trigger exponential changes in: crop cycles that directly affect food security, agricultural economy and the functioning of water resources infrastructures. The proposed study contributes to the construction of a stochastic model that contributes to drought forecasting in Ecuador, the technique uses information provided by the CHIRPS tool located at the CHANLUD satellite weather station, CHIRPS data were validated through statistical metrics for an ARIMA model (2,0,1). The results evidenced the presence of droughts in normal category (scarce precipitation) and extremely wet droughts (sufficient precipitation but water distribution problems), of these during the period of analysis 2000-2023 normal droughts vary between -0.99 and 0.94, corresponding to the months of January 2000 to March 2012 and April 2013 to November 2023, the extremely wet drought is between 2.38 and 4.32, for the months of April 2012 to March 2013; also the drought events did not present patterns of periodicity.
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