Transitional dynamics of paramo grassland ecosystem and the primary activities through neural networks in an Andean lake complex, Sangay National Park
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Abstract
The present study shows the change in three decades, where gains and losses of cover of the páramo ecosystem were analyzed in the Ozogoche lake complex; whose surface area is 9397.97 ha, an altitudinal range from 3792 to 4096 m.a.s.l., average temperature from 4 to 12°C and precipitation 1000-1200 mm. A Land Use Change Modeler (LCM) was used for land cover change; six categories were established, forest (B), páramo (Pr), crops (C), pasture (Ps), water bodies (A) and forest plantations (Pf); during the period 1991-2001, Pr showed gains of 503 ha and losses of 305 ha, a net change of 808.8 ha; the forest category (B), suffered a loss of 41 ha and a gain of 19 ha with a net change of 60 ha, this value shows a moderate and slow change trend; category changes for the decade from 2001 to 2011, show a change for (B) with loss of 30 ha and gain of 13.92 ha, a net change of 43.92 ha; the Pr category shows losses of 2201.2 ha and gain of 1334.8 ha, a total change of 3536 ha, the change between categories in this time is systematic, but it is much more marked in terms of loss of fragile ecosystems; the trend of páramo 0.94 shows the probability of displacement to other categories, mainly to pasture, crops and forest plantations.
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